November 20, 2024: In a dramatic escalation of tensions, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday signed a decree that revises Moscow's nuclear policy, extending the conditions under which Russia could use nuclear weapons. The new doctrine significantly broadens the circumstances under which Russia could employ its nuclear arsenal, now including the possibility of nuclear strikes against non-nuclear states if they are supported by nuclear powers.

This move comes as the war in Ukraine enters its 1,000th day and follows a contentious shift in U.S. policy, with President Joe Biden approving the use of U.S.-made ATACMS long-range missiles by Ukraine. The missiles, which are capable of striking deep within Russian territory, will allow Kyiv to hit Russian military infrastructure in previously untouchable areas.

In response to Biden’s decision, Putin made it clear that Russia would not be deterred by Western military aid to Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow’s military operation would continue unabated, with Western support for Kyiv "having no impact" on the outcome of the conflict. He reiterated that Russia's goal was to defeat Ukraine, emphasizing that the "military operation against Kyiv continues" and would ultimately "be completed."

Peskov also warned that Russia now views any aggression by a non-nuclear state—such as Ukraine—supported by a nuclear power as a form of "joint attack," signaling a potential escalation of the conflict that could draw in nuclear weapons. While Russia has historically portrayed its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent, Peskov emphasized that Russia would only resort to these weapons if it felt "forced" to do so.

This policy change has raised alarms across the West, with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warning that Putin "must not get his way" in Ukraine, but also acknowledging that there is no immediate threat of nuclear escalation. Just a month ago, Stoltenberg had stated that despite Russia’s "reckless and irresponsible" actions, there was no imminent danger of nuclear conflict. However, with the extension of Russia’s nuclear doctrine to include Belarus, Moscow is sending a clear signal that it is prepared to escalate its military tactics as the war drags on.

Putin’s decree also aligns with Russia’s growing support for Belarus, a key ally in the region. The expanded nuclear policy now encompasses Belarus, further solidifying the two nations' military cooperation and signaling Moscow’s intent to project its influence across its borders.

The move comes just two months before President Biden is set to hand over power to Donald Trump, who has previously expressed skepticism about continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Trump’s stance has raised concerns about potential shifts in U.S. foreign policy that could affect Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian aggression.